Top Forex Reviews

On Wednesday, Central European currencies experienced a mixed trading. The zloty and the forint posted small losses, whereas the EUR/CZK cross rate edged lower and closed below 200 days moving average (seen at 24.816). Nevertheless, the regional highlight was the National Bank of Poland’s (NBP) meeting.

Although the NBP left rates unchanged (such a result was broadly expected), it confirmed its rather hawkish policy stance (in comparison with both market expectations and Bloomberg consensus, see the chart). I Full post…

Tuesday’s recovery in the Euro was impressive, with the single currency able to shake off much of the negative sentiment towards it and muster a rally back towards 1.2800. Still, at this point, last Friday’s high is key and a break above 1.2880 will be required to officially alleviate downside pressures and open a more significant short-term correction. The

Full post…

On Monday, Central European currencies posted small gains as they took advantage of a slightly stronger common currency. Apart from that, a positive mood related to upcoming Hungary and IMF/EU talks supported regional assets in general and Hungarian bonds in particular (see the chart).

Both IMF and EU criticized especially new laws which might curb the central bank’s independence. A sharp rise in bond yields in the end of previous year persuaded Hungary’s Economy Ministry to scrap some of planned bond auctions recently and put an additional pressure on Orban’s administrative. Meanw Full post…

Risk appetite has stabilized today and the overall mood appears constructive as December’s round of PMI surveys has been encouraging overall. In particular, the manufacturing components released yesterday pointed to a much stronger than expected performance at the end of last year. Switzerland posted the most impressive upside surprise, with December’s reading hitting 50.7 compared to forecasts of 45.4 (44.8 the month prior). Echoing the better than expected results out of Europe, the US ISM manufacturing survey hit 53.9 – outpacing estimates looking for 53.5, and much better than November’s reading of 52.7. This mo Full post…

Fundamental Headlines

European Session Summary

The U.S. Dollar’s remarkable run the past few days seems to have taken a breather on Wednesday. As the worst performing currency ahead of the North American trading session, this appears to be little more than a corrective move after gaining over 2 percent collectively across the board from Friday through Tuesday. Like the recent trend that has developed, the ‘dead’ trading period in between the Asian and European sessions produced another turn around in the majors.

< Full post…

Dollar Can’t Fall into Year-End Peace with Crisis Fires Smoldering

Whether we look at the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index or the EURUSD, the greenback ended this past week virtually unchanged. On a larger scale, this performance isn’t necessarily discouraging as the currency is riding off the bullish performance it managed to forge through November – and against a much more buoyant S&P 500. We ca

Full post…

***Economic data***
– (CA) Canada Nov Net Change in Employment: -18.6K v 20.0Ke; Unemployment Rate: 7.4% v 7.3%e
– (US) Nov Change in Nonfarm Payrolls: +120K v +125Ke; Change in Private Payrolls: +140K v +150Ke
– (US) Nov Unemployment Rate: 8.6% v 9.0%e
– (US) Nov Avg Hourly Earning M/M: -0.1% v 0.2%e; Avg Weekly Hours: 34.3 v 34.3e
– (MX) Mexico Central Bank leaves Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.50%

– This morning’s November jobs report is front and center this morning, with the data helping to hold up the equity gains seen all week. Full post…

Sentiment remains weak in Asia, as traders unwind risk positions ahead of the long weekend. Heavy selling in the short-end of the European yields curve as Europe opens. Dark clouds linger over Europe as the German Chancellor Merkel, French President Sarkozy and Italian Prime Minister Monti’s meeting ends with no crisis fighting initiatives announced. In addition, Merkel went on to spook the markets by reiterating Germany’s stance that backing a Eurozone bond would send the “wrong signal” and continued to reject the concept of the ECB as lender of last resort. Her wo Full post…

Fundamental Headlines

European Session Summary

The beginning part of the week featured a major sell-off and capital flight to the safe haven currencies, the Japanese Yen and the U.S. Dollar, as liquidity conditions tightened across global markets. Short-term funding concerns are becoming increasingly prevalent in the Euro-zone, driving investors out of higher yielding currencies and into more liquid, secure assets. Although these concerns remain elevated, at least on a technical basis, markets were due for a correction headed into Friday trade as the U.S.

Full post…

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish

The Euro ended the trading week on a bright note, posting the largest daily rally in two weeks and trimming its weekly loss to just 0.2 percent on average against the major currencies.

Full post…