Treasury futures rallied in flight-to-safety buying as yields in the 30-Year Bonds and 10-Year Notes plunged. Expectations are the Fed is likely to keep interest rates down for a prolonged period of time. Despite the early recovery in the equity markets, the Treasurys held their ground, suggesting that there is real concern about the condition of the economy. The fact that Fed officials are backing the call for a weaker economy is the key driving force behind the move in the Treasury instruments. Traders have decided that the Fed is likely to keep pressure on interest rates until the economy can turn around. Full post…
Archive for July, 2010
We’ll be receiving GDP release from Canada today along with US Adv. GDP q/q, I’d suggest to concentrate on the U.S. release first, if there is no trading opportunity there, then come back and look at the Canadian release. Here’s the forecast:
8:30am NY Time Canada GDP m/m Forecast 0.1% Previous 0.0%
ACTION: USD/CAD BUY -0.2% SELL 0.4%
The Trade Plan
I’ll be looking to BUY USD/CAD if we get a -0.2% or lower release, and SELL USD/CAD if we get a 0.4% or higher… With recent strength in CAD due to the general weakness in the USD and rise in demands for commodities, a stronger GDP should definitely add to the bullishness of the CAD. I’ll be l Full post…
So you’ve done your research, read all forex reviews, select your preferred currency pair, found the configuration you need for your business, according to your forex trading system. You know it’s one of the best forex trading strategies you have found, because you’ve been testing it for a few weeks. Now it is time to begin trading online with your strategy.
You feel confident because you have seen this configuration before and know the odds are in your favor. You begin the trade and let it run. A few hours later, you stop on a loss. Not much. Full post…
It has been three years since the Bank of International Settlements’ last report on foreign exchange was released. Since then, analysts could only speculate about how the forex market has evolved and changed.
The wait is now over, thanks to a huge data release by the world’s Central Bank, which showed that daily trading volume currently averages $4.1 Trillion, a 28% jump since 2007. Trading in London accounted for 44% of the total, with the US – in a distant second – claiming nearly 19%. Japan a
The European stress tests are now behind us and unfortunately they failed to be the buzz kill or euphoric event that was needed to break the EUR/USD out of its recent trading range. The goal of the stress tests was to restore confidence in the European banking sector, but based upon the price action in the currency and European equity markets this morning, investors were not impressed. The results scream leniency because all of the big European banks passed and those that failed were either very weak to begin with or already expected to do so. There will be no major capital injections into banks, which was what followed the U.S.
AUD/USD (a 4-hour chart of which is shown) as of Monday (7/26/2010) morning has just closely approached its key bullish resistance target of 0.9000, the potential for which was noted in last week’s AUD/USD analysis. This reach towards resistance, which establishes a new 2+ month high … For D/USD technical analysis, please click here.
James Chen, CTA, CMT
After a slight respite following the culmination of the Eurozone debt crisis, emerging markets financial markets are back to the their former selves, with stocks, bonds, and currencies all performing well.
The rally is being driven by two principal factors. First, investors came to the gradual realization that the trend towards risk aversion had reached extreme proportions. Given that the crisis in the EU has been fairly limited both in scope and extent (at least so far), it made little sense to punish emerging markets.
Mainstream financial analysts always look for ways to explain market action through news stories and events. Conventional wisdom states that news and inter-market correlations cause market booms and busts, but such explanations rely on selective presentation of the data.
The lack of any fresh economic news was another factor affecting the trade today.
Today marks the one-month anniversary of China’s decision to remove the Yuan’s peg to the Dollar, and allow it to float. Now that the news has had a chance to wend its way through the financial markets, I think it’s time both to reflect and to forecast.
Over the last month, the Chinese RMB has appreciated by slightly less than 1% against the Dollar, although most of that jump took place in the day that followed the June 19 announcement. After